NOAA Declares “Super El Niño” as Pacific Warming Reaches Very Strong Status

admin · November 12, 2026 · 7 min read

Satellite-style illustration of the equatorial Pacific Ocean showing warm El Niño waters in deep red and orange, with storm clouds gathering over the southern United States.

America’s climate forecasters confirmed on Thursday that the El Niño warming the equatorial Pacific has reached very strong status, with ocean temperatures now high enough for the event to be called a “Super El Niño.” The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the pattern is still strengthening and is likely to shape weather across the United States through the winter.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion at 9:00 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, November 12, keeping an El Niño Advisory in effect. Its headline finding: “El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January–March 2027 (remaining greater than a 79 percent chance).”

What the numbers show

The latest measurements describe a Pacific that has warmed sharply over the past month. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific now exceed 4.0 degrees Celsius above average and have spread farther west than they were a month ago.

The three regional Niño indices that forecasters track all rose: Niño-3.4, the headline measure, reached +2.5°C; Niño-3 reached +3.6°C; and Niño-1+2, closest to the South American coast, reached +4.4°C. Below the surface, the picture is just as striking. The equatorial subsurface temperature index remained significantly above average, with a deeper-than-average thermocline and temperature anomalies topping +10.0°C at depth in the eastern Pacific.

The atmosphere is responding in step with the ocean. Low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies now stretch from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Rainfall and convection remain enhanced from the central to the eastern Pacific, while dry, suppressed conditions persist over Indonesia. Both the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices stayed consistently negative — the classic signature of an ongoing El Niño.

Why it is being called a “Super El Niño”

NOAA’s formal strength scale tops out at “very strong.” The label “Super El Niño” is the widely used shorthand for events in that top tier, generally those in which the three-month average ocean temperature in the Niño-3.4 region reaches at least 2.0°C above average.

That threshold has now been crossed. Fox Weather, reporting on the announcement on Thursday morning, said the three-month period from August through October reached exactly the 2.0°C mark, formally putting the event into very strong territory. El Niño has been in effect since late spring, strengthening through the summer and into the fall, and forecasters expect conditions to last through spring 2027.

The August–October reading of +2.0°C on NOAA’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index is the second-highest for that time of year since records began in 1950. Only the 1997–98 event, one of the strongest on record, was higher at the same point — by a tenth of a degree. NOAA notes the figures are provisional and can shift for up to two months after they are first posted.

Could it become the strongest on record?

The odds of a historic event have eased slightly even as the event itself has strengthened. NOAA now puts the chance of a three-month index value of +2.5°C or more — enough to exceed every El Niño since 1950 — at about 60 percent for both the October–December and November–January periods. In its October discussion, the agency had put those odds at 83 percent and 70 percent. The chances remain better than even, but the record is no longer the near-certainty it appeared to be a month ago.

The Climate Prediction Center’s official outlook, which blends models from North America and abroad, expects El Niño to keep strengthening before beginning to weaken in early 2027.

Why this matters for the U.S. winter

A strong El Niño does not write any single town’s forecast, but it tilts the odds for the whole season. NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026 through February 2027, released October 15, expects increased storm activity across the southern tier of the country, from Southern California through the South and into Florida, with above-average temperatures favored across the northern tier. The greatest likelihood of a wetter-than-normal season anywhere in the country is over the Southeast and Florida, where forecasters also warn of an elevated risk of severe winter weather.

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream south and east across the contiguous United States, steering storms into the South. NOAA stresses that even a very strong event only raises the chances of its typical impacts — it does not guarantee them for any one place. The agency will update its three-month winter outlook on November 19.

The pattern reaches beyond weather. The latest Global Carbon Budget, released at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, found that land-use emissions rose in 2026 in part because of El Niño-driven peat fires and drought in Southeast Asia, even as fossil-fuel emissions edged down.

The pattern has already left a mark on 2026. Forecasters have linked the strong El Niño to a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season, which saw the latest first hurricane formation on record, on September 11.

Latest developments

Thursday’s discussion is the monthly update NOAA issues on the second Thursday of each month. The next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for December 10, 2026. Weekly ocean and atmosphere updates continue on the Climate Prediction Center’s website in the meantime.

For now, the message from NOAA is clear: the Pacific’s warmest event in years is still building, it has now crossed into the top strength tier, and it is likely to remain a major force in American weather through the winter.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a “Super El Niño”?

It is the informal name for an El Niño in NOAA’s top strength tier, “very strong.” The label is generally applied when the three-month average ocean temperature in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific reaches at least 2.0°C above average. NOAA’s formal scale tops out at “very strong” — “Super El Niño” is the media shorthand for the same thing.

How strong is the current El Niño?

The August–October three-month average reached +2.0°C, the second-highest for that time of year since 1950. The latest monthly Niño-3.4 reading is +2.5°C, and sea surface anomalies in parts of the eastern Pacific exceed +4.0°C. NOAA says a strong-to-very-strong event is likely through January–March 2027, with a greater than 79 percent chance.

What does it mean for winter weather in the United States?

NOAA’s winter outlook favors a stormier, wetter season across the southern tier — from Southern California to Florida — and warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier. The Southeast and Florida face the highest odds of a wetter-than-normal winter, along with an elevated risk of severe weather. These are seasonal odds, not guarantees for any one location.

When will NOAA update its forecast?

The next monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for December 10, 2026. NOAA will update its three-month winter outlook sooner, on November 19, and publishes weekly El Niño updates on the Climate Prediction Center website.