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Global Fossil Fuel Emissions to Edge Down in 2026 — but Total CO2 Still Hits a Record High

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Earth seen from space with solar panels and wind turbines in the foreground, illustrating the 2026 Global Carbon Budget findings

Global Fossil Fuel Emissions to Edge Down in 2026 — but Total CO2 Still Hits a Record High

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall slightly in 2026, the first decline in five years, according to the annual Global Carbon Budget published on Tuesday. But the drop is so small — and driven so heavily by war and high energy prices — that total global CO2 emissions are still expected to reach a record high this year.

The 21st edition of the Global Carbon Budget, produced by the Global Carbon Project and presented at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, projects fossil fuel and cement emissions of 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2026, down about 0.4 percent from 2025. The report, prepared by more than 140 scientists from nearly 100 institutions, was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, with companion research in Nature Climate Change.

The headline figure comes with a wide margin of error. The researchers’ preliminary projection spans a fall of 1.5 percent to a rise of 0.6 percent, meaning a small increase in emissions cannot be ruled out. In effect, the scientists say, the picture is a flatline rather than a decline.

Oil drives the dip — and war is the main reason

Almost all of the projected fall comes from oil. Emissions from oil are forecast to drop 1.9 percent in 2026, or about 243 million tonnes of CO2, one of the largest annual falls on record outside the Covid-19 pandemic year of 2020. Emissions from natural gas are projected to edge down 0.3 percent, while coal emissions are expected to rise 0.6 percent.

The report links most of the oil decline to the energy shock triggered by the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed prices higher and constrained supplies. Petrol and diesel prices in the United States, China and the European Union ran 10 to 50 percent higher than in 2025, depending on the fuel and the period, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis of the report.

That connection matters for how the numbers should be read. The researchers conclude that the 2026 decline is “not a sign that emissions have peaked from the transition to cleaner energy,” but more likely a short-term response to higher oil prices. Clean energy alone was not enough to cut emissions this year: without the energy shock from the Iran war, the researchers estimate, global emissions would have continued to rise.

At the same time, renewable energy is doing more of the heavy lifting than ever. Growth in solar, wind and electric vehicles offset about 69 percent of the emissions that rising energy demand would otherwise have added in 2026 — roughly 0.54 billion tonnes of the 0.78 billion tonnes of demand-driven growth. Solar and wind alone avoided an estimated 4.1 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025, a figure projected to reach 4.6 billion tonnes in 2026, up from just 0.28 billion tonnes in 2010. China accounts for around half of those avoided emissions. Electric vehicles avoided a further 0.19 billion tonnes in 2025, though only about 10 percent of the global car fleet has been electrified so far.

The US, China and Europe fall — India rises

Fossil emissions are projected to fall in most major economies in 2026. China, which accounts for about 32 percent of global fossil emissions, is expected to see a 0.9 percent decline, with oil emissions down sharply by 4.6 percent as renewables grow and a milder summer than 2025’s record heat reduced demand for cooling.

The United States, about 13 percent of the global total, is projected to see emissions fall 1.3 percent, mainly because of a 6.7 percent drop in coal emissions after an unusual rise in 2025 driven by high gas prices and cold weather. American oil emissions fell 1.1 percent, while gas emissions rose 0.5 percent. The European Union is projected to fall 1.5 percent, with coal down 2.9 percent and oil down 1.8 percent.

India is the major exception. Its fossil emissions are projected to rise 4.4 percent in 2026 — faster than its average growth of 3.5 percent a year over the past decade — with coal emissions up 5.9 percent. The contrast in per-person emissions remains stark: in 2025, the average American emitted 14.5 tonnes of fossil CO2, compared with 2.2 tonnes per person in India. The global average is about 4.6 tonnes per person in 2026, roughly 4 percent below its early-2010s peak.

The report also finds that 40 countries, together accounting for 26 percent of global fossil emissions, significantly reduced their emissions while their economies grew over 2016–25 — up from 22 countries in the previous decade.

Total emissions still hit a record

The fossil fuel dip does not translate into lower overall emissions. Emissions from land-use change — deforestation, forest degradation and peat fires — are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 4.4 billion tonnes in 2025, driven by peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia linked to a strong El Niño that began in June.

As a result, total CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and land use are projected to reach a record 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, marginally above the 42.8 billion tonnes recorded in 2025. Had land-use emissions stayed at 2025 levels, total emissions would have fallen slightly to about 42.6 billion tonnes.

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are set to keep rising regardless. The report projects CO2 will average 427.7 parts per million in 2026, about 54 percent above pre-industrial levels, with concentrations rising by 2.2 parts per million during the year.

Natural carbon sinks continue to absorb about half of humanity’s emissions — the ocean took up around 27 percent and the land around 22 percent over 2016–25 — but climate change is weakening them. The land sink in 2025 was the highest on record at about 13.3 billion tonnes, rebounding after the 2023–24 El Niño suppressed it, though the current El Niño is expected to weaken the land sink in 2027.

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Less than four years of carbon budget left for 1.5C

The most sobering number in the report is the remaining carbon budget. With human-caused warming reaching 1.37C above pre-industrial levels in 2025, the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted while keeping a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5C is now just 150 billion tonnes from the start of 2027 — less than four years of emissions at the current rate. The budgets for 1.7C and 2C are 510 billion and 1,035 billion tonnes, or roughly 12 and 24 years of current emissions.

Even the researchers’ more hopeful scenarios do not show a quick turnaround. In a companion analysis looking ahead to 2028, rising energy demand would add about 2.6 billion tonnes of CO2 between 2025 and 2028. Clean technologies would offset 63 percent of that if deployment stays at 2026 levels, and 79 percent if it keeps accelerating along recent trends — but in both cases overall emissions would still be higher in 2028 than in 2025.

The authors add a note of caution and a note of possibility: if further acceleration of clean technology deployment can be supported over time, “a sustained peak and decline in global CO2 emissions could be a few years away.” A peak, however, is only a first step. Limiting warming to well below 2C — let alone 1.5C — requires emissions to fall rapidly toward net zero, not just stop rising.

Why this matters

For American readers, the report carries two messages. First, the United States is cutting its fossil emissions — down a projected 1.3 percent this year — but from a per-person level nearly seven times India’s, and largely because coal use fell back after an unusual 2025 spike rather than because of a structural shift. Second, the global numbers show that war and price shocks, not climate policy, delivered this year’s dip: oil prices fell in financial markets only after the Iran fighting eased, and the emissions decline tracks that same disruption.

The findings land as delegates at the COP31 climate summit in Antalya debate how to turn climate promises into action. The Global Carbon Budget suggests the world is closer than ever to a peak in fossil emissions — but not there yet, and the clock on the 1.5C budget is nearly run out.

Frequently asked questions

Are global CO2 emissions actually falling in 2026?

No. Emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall 0.4 percent, but emissions from land-use change are rising, so total CO2 emissions are projected to reach a record 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tonnes in 2025.

Why are fossil fuel emissions falling this year?

Mainly because of the energy shock from the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which raised oil prices and constrained supplies. Oil emissions are projected to fall 1.9 percent. Clean energy growth — solar, wind and electric vehicles — offset about 69 percent of the emissions from rising energy demand, but was not enough on its own to cut emissions.

How much of the carbon budget for 1.5C is left?

About 150 billion tonnes of CO2 from the start of 2027, according to the Global Carbon Project. That is less than four years of emissions at the current rate, with a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to 1.5C.

Which countries are cutting emissions?

Fossil emissions are projected to fall in China (down 0.9 percent), the United States (down 1.3 percent) and the European Union (down 1.5 percent) in 2026, but rise 4.4 percent in India. Forty countries cut their emissions while their economies grew over 2016–25.

What to watch next

The 2026 figures are projections, and the final numbers — due in next year’s edition of the Global Carbon Budget — could show a small rise instead of a fall. The more important test is whether the decline survives the end of the Iran energy shock. If oil prices stay low and supplies recover, the report’s authors warn, emissions are likely to resume rising unless clean energy deployment accelerates further. Delegates at COP31 will be watching whether the summit produces commitments strong enough to turn a war-driven flatline into a genuine, lasting peak.

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