Peltola Widens Lead Over Sullivan to 2,517 Votes in Alaska’s Uncalled Senate Race

admin · November 10, 2026 · 7 min read

Ballot box in a snowy Alaska landscape with the U.S. Capitol in the distance, illustrating the uncalled Alaska Senate race between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan

Democrat Mary Peltola has widened her lead over Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan to 2,517 votes in Alaska’s still-uncalled U.S. Senate race, according to an updated count published Monday by the Alaska Division of Elections — a shift that, for the first time, puts Peltola ahead even after Alaska’s ranked-choice runoff is taken into account.

Peltola, a former congresswoman, held 106,321 first-choice votes, or 48.47 percent, against 103,804 votes, or 47.33 percent, for Sullivan, the two-term incumbent. The update added 4,947 counted ballots to the statewide tally, lifting Peltola’s lead from just 637 votes a week earlier. With tens of thousands more ballots expected to be added on Tuesday, the race that will help set the final balance of the next Senate remains unresolved a full week after Election Day.

The numbers behind the lead

The Division of Elections’ unofficial summary, dated Monday afternoon, showed all 401 precincts reporting, with 220,859 ballots cast out of 605,433 registered voters — a turnout of 36.48 percent so far. Of the 219,342 votes counted in the Senate race, Republican Gerald Heikes took 4,865 votes (2.22 percent), independent Dan J. Sullivan took 3,651 votes (1.66 percent), and write-ins accounted for 701 votes (0.32 percent).

The Associated Press estimated on Monday that about 76 percent of all ballots cast had been tallied. Alaska allows 10 days from Election Day for ballots to arrive and be counted, plus 15 days for overseas votes, and the state’s vast rural geography makes its count one of the slowest in the country.

The remaining ballots are largely from remote areas and are expected to favor Peltola, according to the Juneau Independent’s reporting on the count. The larger release expected Tuesday covers absentee and early votes received in the days immediately before Election Day, which officials withheld while they cross-checked Election Day poll registers to prevent Alaskans from casting two votes.

Why the ranked-choice math now favors Peltola

Alaska’s election system adds a twist that has kept the race uncalled even as Peltola’s first-choice lead has grown. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of first-choice votes, a ranked-choice runoff is used: the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated, and voters who picked them have their ballots move to their second choices. The elimination continues until two candidates remain and the person with the most votes wins.

For days, that math appeared to help Sullivan. Preliminary calculations by the Alaska Beacon had shown Sullivan leading once the redistribution was taken into account, because enough voters who backed the trailing candidates ranked him second. But Monday’s update changed the equation. As the Juneau Empire reported, Peltola gained enough first-choice votes to outweigh Sullivan’s runoff advantage, and with 48.5 percent of first-choice votes she is also closing in on the 50 percent threshold that would let her win outright, without a runoff at all.

That could still change on Tuesday, when the next large batch of ballots is added. The formal ranked-choice tally is not scheduled until November 18, and certification is expected on November 25.

Trump declared Sullivan the winner anyway

The count has become a political flashpoint. On Saturday, President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that the race was over and that Sullivan had won “by a lot,” even though returns at the time showed the Republican trailing Peltola by fewer than 700 votes with only about 74 percent of precincts reporting. The New York Post reported Trump’s posts, in which he treated the votes for the second Sullivan on the ballot and for Heikes as effectively belonging to the sitting senator.

Trump and Sullivan have questioned the legitimacy of the results, arguing that the independent candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. — a retired schoolteacher from Petersburg who shares the senator’s name — was recruited by the Peltola campaign to confuse voters. The candidate, sometimes called “Decoy Dan” by critics, took 3,651 votes, more than the current margin between the two leaders.

A New York Times analysis published November 5 concluded that Sullivan was unlikely to make significant gains through the ranked-choice retabulation, in part because Peltola was the second choice of many voters who backed the other Sullivan. The Justice Department has also filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent Alaska from certifying its election results, arguing that the second Sullivan on the ballot amounted to an attempt to pervert voter choice, according to Al Jazeera’s reporting.

Trump questioned whether the 2026 midterms were honest in a separate post on Monday, blaming voting machines without offering evidence — a claim election officials in several states have rejected.

What else is on the line in Alaska

The Senate race is not the only contest still hanging in the balance. In the governor’s race, Democratic candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins held 49.4 percent of first-choice votes on Monday. Republican candidate Bernadette Wilson was second with 28.8 percent and has not conceded, while Republican Dave Bronson, in third place, said last week that Kreiss-Tomkins’ victory appears inevitable.

In the race for the U.S. House, incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Begich III held 49.1 percent of first-choice votes, well ahead of independent challenger Bill Hill with 40.7 percent. Democratic candidate Eric Hafner, a federal inmate in New York state, had 7.3 percent.

Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal Alaska’s open-primary and ranked-choice election system, continued to trail, with 52.3 percent of participating voters choosing “no.”

Why this race matters

Democrats have already won control of the Senate, taking 54 seats in the November 3 midterms after flipping at least seven Republican seats. But Alaska and Mississippi’s Senate race are the last two contests still uncalled, and together they will decide the final margin of the Democratic majority — and how much room the new majority has to govern when the 120th Congress convenes on January 3, 2027.

Mississippi’s Senate race is also unresolved, with Democrat Scott Colom leading Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 2,536 votes as a 5 p.m. Central deadline arrives Tuesday for mail ballots and voter identification fixes. The two uncalled races have left the final shape of the Senate uncertain a week after voters went to the polls.

The outcome in Alaska also carries a test for the state’s ranked-choice system itself. Voters will decide in Ballot Measure 2 whether to keep the system that is now deciding their Senate race. If Peltola holds on, she would become the first Democrat to win an Alaska Senate seat since 2008, and her victory would come through the very system that measure seeks to abolish.

Latest developments

The Alaska Division of Elections is expected to release a much larger batch of counted ballots on Tuesday, adding tens of thousands of absentee and early votes received just before Election Day.
The formal ranked-choice tally is scheduled for November 18, with certification expected on November 25.
The Justice Department’s lawsuit seeking to block certification remains pending.
Trump has continued to insist Sullivan won, despite the official count showing Peltola ahead by 2,517 votes.

Frequently asked questions

Who is leading the Alaska Senate race?

Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by 2,517 votes — 106,321 votes (48.47 percent) to 103,804 votes (47.33 percent) — according to the Alaska Division of Elections’ unofficial count published Monday. The race has not been called.

Why hasn’t the Alaska Senate race been called yet?

About a quarter of ballots remained uncounted as of Monday, Alaska allows 10 days for ballots to arrive, and the state uses ranked-choice voting, with the formal ranked-choice tally not scheduled until November 18. A large batch of absentee and early ballots is expected to be added on Tuesday.

How does ranked-choice voting work in Alaska?

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their voters’ ballots move to their second choices. The process repeats until two candidates remain. Earlier calculations showed Sullivan ahead after redistribution, but Monday’s update put Peltola ahead even under that math.

What is the “second Sullivan” controversy?

Independent candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg schoolteacher, shares the incumbent senator’s name and took 3,651 votes. Trump and Sullivan allege he was recruited to confuse voters; the Justice Department has sued to block certification. A New York Times analysis found Peltola was the second choice of many of his voters, limiting any benefit to Sullivan from the ranked-choice runoff.

The Senate’s final shape will not be known until Alaska finishes counting and Mississippi resolves its own razor-thin race. For now, the official numbers point in one direction: Peltola ahead, Sullivan behind, and a decisive batch of ballots due on Tuesday that could settle — or scramble — the contest once again.

Sources: Alaska Division of Elections; Juneau Empire / Alaska Beacon; Juneau Independent; Al Jazeera; Poliwave live results.